What are the chances for all the parties?
There will be lots of talk as the results start appearing overnight about what it all means for Boris Johnson post-partygate, and Keir Starmer post-beergate. But in Wales things are a little different. For a start, Mark Drakeford is the leader of the Welsh party and we’ve seen in the Senedd elections his popularity gave the party a bounce. There is also only one Conservative-run council in Wales which is Monmouthshire. And there, the group leader was one of a relatively small group of Conservatives who was vocal in his criticism of the Prime Minister’s conduct, so there is some talk that could cushion any local native bounce.
In January, Richard John said that the Prime Minister had lost people’s trust. Speaking to BBC Wales, Mr John said: “The members of the public that I’ve been talking to are just sick to death of this. And they feel that there’s been a complete and almost irreparable breakdown in trust between the public and the prime minister, and I’m not sure if he can repair that.”
He said Tory party members are “genuinely torn because the prime minister has generally navigated the pandemic well”.
What will be interesting to see in Wales is how Plaid Cymru fare. Again, the party only has control of one council in Gwynedd but it did have a say in Ynys Mon, Carmarthenshire and Ceredigion where no one party had overall control but they were in coalitions.
In Cardiff, Plaid Cymru and the Green Party have teamed up for the Common Ground Alliance and their candidates are standing on a joint ticket so it’ll be interesting to see how they fare, especially as Plaid didn’t have a great Senedd election and the Greens did have a councillor elected in Powys in 2017, but she has left the party to join Plaid meaning there isn’t a single Green voice at a council level in Wales.