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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #10, 2021

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #10, 2021

Posted on 10 March 2021 by doug_bostrom

Systems Thinking

An article by by Stenzel et al highlights the Jenga-like nature of digging (inhaling?) our way out from beneath the cloud of CO2 we’ve emitted. Biomass capture of CO2 is an intuitively attractive method of controlling the proportion of CO2 in the atmosphere especially as it’s also a potential means of storing energy, but as with so many other technologies this approach needs full circumspection before we let it off the leash. Irrigation of biomass plantations may globally increase water stress more than climate change is open access, free to read. The abstract:

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is considered an important negative emissions (NEs) technology, but might involve substantial irrigation on biomass plantations. Potential water stress resulting from the additional withdrawals warrants evaluation against the avoided climate change impact. Here we quantitatively assess potential side effects of BECCS with respect to water stress by disentangling the associated drivers (irrigated biomass plantations, climate, land use patterns) using comprehensive global model simulations. By considering a widespread use of irrigated biomass plantations, global warming by the end of the 21st century could be limited to 1.5 °C compared to a climate change scenario with 3 °C. However, our results suggest that both the global area and population living under severe water stress in the BECCS scenario would double compared to today and even exceed the impact of climate change. Such side effects of achieving substantial NEs would come as an extra pressure in an already water-stressed world and could only be avoided if sustainable water management were implemented globally.

104 Articles

 Physical science of climate change, effects

How Much Arctic Fresh Water Participates in the Subpolar Overturning Circulation?
Le Bras et al 2021
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/jpo-d-20-0240.1

On the Structure of Instantaneous Radiative Forcing Kernels for Greenhouse Gases
Maycock et al 2020 Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-19-0267.1

Observations of climate change, effects

Explaining the Spatial Pattern of U.S. Extreme Daily Precipitation Change
Hoerling et al 2020 Journal of Climate
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0666.1

Responses of the glacier mass balance to climate change in the Tibetan Plateau during 1975-2013
Liu et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2019jd032132

Characteristics of air temperature in Poland from 1994 to 2019 based on hourly data
Sachindra & Nowosad 2021 International Journal of Climatology
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7077

A shorter, sharper rainy season amplifies California wildfire risk
Swain 2021 Geophysical Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2021gl092843

Changing Lengths of the Four Seasons by Global Warming
Wang et al 2021 Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091753

Extreme Temperatures in the Antarctic
Turner et al 2004 Functional Ecology
Open Access DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0538.1

Long-term ocean acidification trends in coastal waters around Japan
Ishida et al 2021 Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-84657-0

The case of a southern European glacier which survived Roman and medieval warm periods but is disappearing under recent warming
Moreno et al 2021 The Cryosphere
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-107

Long-term evolution of global sea surface temperature trend
Xu et al 2020 JOURNAL OF MECHANICS OF CONTINUA AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/joc.7082

Temporal and spatial variation of the transitional climate zone in summer during 1961–2018
Wang et al 2020 International Journal of Climatology
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6902

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Winter seal-based observations reveal glacial meltwater surfacing in the southeastern Amundsen Sea
Zheng et al 2021 Communications Earth & Environment
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s43247-021-00111-z

Building a local climate reference dataset: application to the Abruzzo region (Central Italy), 1930-2019
Curci et al 2021 International Journal of Climatology
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7081

Observations of greenhouse gases as climate indicators
Bruhwiler et al 2021 Climatic Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03001-7

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Changes in Future Precipitation Mean and Variability across Scales
Schwarzwald et al 2020 Journal of Climate
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0001.1

SSP-based land-use change scenarios: a critical uncertainty in future regional climate change projections
Bukovsky et al 2021
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001782

Future changes in the frequency and destructiveness of landfalling tropical cyclones over East Asia projected by high-resolution AGCMs
Hsu et al 2021 Earth’s Future
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001888

Seasonality, intensity and duration of rainfall extremes change in a warmer climate
Moustakis et al 2021 Earth’s Future
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001824

Climate and hydrologic ensembling lead to differing streamflow and sediment yield predictions
Dahl et al 2021
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03011-5

Winter Precipitation Changes in California Under Global Warming: Contributions of CO2, Uniform SST Warming, and SST Change Patterns

Is There a Tropical Response to Recent Observed Southern Ocean Cooling?
Zhang et al 2021 Geophysical Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10503180.1

Amplified Increases of Compound Hot Extremes over Urban Land in China
Liao et al 2021 Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091252

Projected changes in wind power potential over China and India in high resolution climate models
Sherman et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abe57c

Changes in fire weather climatology under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming
Son et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abe675

Arctic Amplification Weakens the Variability of Daily Temperatures over Northern Middle-High Latitudes

Responses of the East Asian summer monsoon to aerosol forcing in CMIP5 models: The role of upper-tropospheric temperature change
Mu & Wang 2020 International Journal of Climatology
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6887

Advances in climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

A probabilistic Bayesian framework to deal with the uncertainty in hydro-climate projection of Zayandeh-Rud River Basin
Alinezhad et al 2021 Theoretical and Applied Climatology
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03575-3

Regionally aggregated, stitched and de-drifted CMIP-climate data, processed with netCDF-SCM v2.0.0
Nicholls et al 2021 Geoscience Data Journal
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/gdj3.113

A next generation ocean carbon isotope model for climate studies I: Steady state controls on ocean 13C

Evaluation of trends in extreme temperatures simulated by HighResMIP models across Europe
Squintu et al 2020
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05596-6

Evaluation of the Tail of the Probability Distribution of Daily and Subdaily Precipitation in CMIP6 Models

Selecting and correcting RCM models ensemble: a case study for the evaluation of thermal discomfort for the city of Prato
Villani et al 2021 Natural Hazards
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04645-5

The effect of modeling strategies on assessments of differential warming impacts of 0.5°C
Zhang & Zhou 2021 Earth’s Future
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001640

Assessing the representation of synoptic variability associated with California extreme precipitation in CMIP6 models
Norris et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033938

Cryosphere & climate change

Responses of the glacier mass balance to climate change in the Tibetan Plateau during 1975-2013
Liu et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2019jd032132

Arctic sea ice sensitivity to lateral melting representation in a coupled climate model
Smith et al 2021
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2021-67 (preprint)

Brief Communication: Thwaites Glacier cavity evolution
Bevan et al 2021
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2021-66 (preprint)

Analysis of the surface mass balance for deglacial climate simulations
Kapsch et al 2020
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-1131-2021

Paleoclimate

Younger Dryas ice margin retreat in Greenland: new evidence from southwestern Greenland
Funder et al 2021 Climate of the Past
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/cp-17-587-2021

Biology & climate change

Climate-induced decrease in biomass flow in marine food webs may severely affect predators and ecosystem production
du Pontavice et al 2021 Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15576

Tussocks enduring or shrubs greening: Alternate responses to changing fire regimes in the Noatak River Valley, Alaska
Gaglioti et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg006009

Classifying human influences on terrestrial ecosystems
Rillig et al 2021 Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15577

Photoperiod decelerates the advance of spring phenology of six deciduous tree species under climate warming
Meng et al 2021 Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15575

Mangrove growth response to experimental warming is greatest near the range limit in northeast Florida
Chapman et al 2021 Ecology
DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3320

Ground and satellite phenology in alpine forests are becoming more heterogeneous across higher elevations with warming
Misra et al 2021 Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108383

Algorithmic conservation in a changing climate
Scoville et al 2014 Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.cosust.2021.01.009

Divergent responses of phenology and growth to summer and autumnal warming
Yan et al 2021 Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15586

Spring temperature and snow cover climatology drive the advanced springtime phenology (1991–2014) in the European Alps
Xie et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg006150

Diagnosing the temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration in northern high-latitude regions
Wu et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg005998

GHG sources & sinks, flux

Greenhouse gas emissions from an arid-zone reservoir and their environmental policy significance: Results from existing global models and an exploratory dataset
Waldo et al 2021 Environmental Science & Policy
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.02.006

Potential Impacts of Supersonic Aircraft Emissions on Ozone and Resulting Forcing on Climate: An Update on Historical Analysis
Zhang et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020jd034130

Controlling factors of methane dynamics in tropical lakes of different depths
Mendoza-Pascual et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg005828

Long-term carbon sinks in marsh soils of coastal Louisiana are at risk to wetland loss
Baustian et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020jg005832

Ecosystem-Atmosphere Exchange of CO2, Water, and Energy in a Basin Mangrove of the Northeastern Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula

Fugitive methane gas migration around Alberta’s petroleum wells
Abboud et al 2020 Greenhouse Gases
DOI: 10.1002/ghg.2029

Large-scale reductions in terrestrial carbon uptake following central Pacific El Niño
Dannenberg et al 2021 Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl092367

The intensifying role of high wind speeds on air-sea carbon dioxide exchange
Gu et al 2021 Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090713

Shipborne measurements of methane and carbon dioxide in the Middle East and Mediterranean areas and contribution from oil and gas emissions
Paris et al 2021
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2021-114 (preprint)

Comparison of greenhouse gas fluxes from tropical forests and oil palm plantations on mineral soil
Drewer et al 2020
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-1559-2021

Fossil CO2 emissions in the post-COVID-19 era

High greenhouse gas fluxes from peatlands under various disturbances in the Peruvian Amazon
Pärn et al 2021
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-2021-46 (preprint)

Global patterns of forest autotrophic carbon fluxes
Banbury Morgan et al 2021 Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15574

Assessment of soil organic and inorganic carbon stock at different soil depths after conversion of desert into arable land in the hot arid regions of India
Moharana et al 2021 Carbon Management
DOI: 10.1080/17583004.2021.1893128

Reply to Comment by R. Parkinson on “Increasing Rates of Carbon Burial in Southwest Florida Coastal Wetlands” by J. Breithaupt et al.
Breithaupt et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2021jg006245

CO2 removal & mitigation science & engineering

Global urban reforestation can be an important natural climate solution
Teo et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abe783

But They Told Us It Was Safe! Carbon Dioxide Removal, Fracking, and Ripple Effects in Risk Perceptions
Cox et al 2021 Risk Analysis
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/risa.13717

Extensive Urban Green Roof Shows Consistent Annual Net Uptake of Carbon as Documented by 5 Years of Eddy-Covariance Flux Measurements

Visual investigation of CO2 dissolution and convection in heterogeneous porous media at reservoir temperature and pressure conditions

Carbon dioxide sequestration by mines: implications for climate change
Punia 2021 Climatic Change
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03038-8

Biological mechanisms may contribute to soil carbon saturation patterns
Craig et al 2021 Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15584

Irrigation of biomass plantations may globally increase water stress more than climate change
Stenzel et al 2020
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21640-3

Geoengineering climate

Does solar geoengineering crowd out climate change mitigation efforts? Evidence from a stated preference referendum on a carbon tax
Cherry et al 2021 Climatic Change
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03009-z

Black carbon

Observations of black carbon and albedo over a central himalayan glacier (Satopanth): Preliminary results
Sandeep et al 2021 Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics
DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2021.105580

Aerosols

Cloud-Nucleating Particles over the Southern Ocean in a Changing Climate
Twohy et al 2021 Earth’s Future
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001673

Responses of the East Asian summer monsoon to aerosol forcing in CMIP5 models: The role of upper-tropospheric temperature change
Mu & Wang 2020 International Journal of Climatology
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6887

Decarbonization

Evidence map: topics, trends, and policy in the energy transitions literature
Lu & Nemet 2020 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abc195

Deep decarbonization in Northeastern North America: The value of electricity market integration and hydropower
Rodríguez-Sarasty et al 2021 Energy Policy
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112210

Climate change communications & cognition

Muslims and climate change: How Islam, Muslim organizations, and religious leaders influence climate change perceptions and mitigation activities
Koehrsen 2021 WIREs Climate Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/wcc.702

Will I have to move because of climate change? Perceived likelihood of weather- or climate-related relocation among the US public
Kim et al 2021 Climatic Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03026-y

Spatial and temporal ways of knowing sea level rise: Bringing together multiple perspectives
McMichael et al 2021 WIREs Climate Change
DOI: 10.1002/wcc.703

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Heat-Mitigation Effects of Irrigated Rice-Paddy Fields Under Changing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Based on a Coupled Atmosphere and Crop Energy-Balance Model
Ikawa et al 2021 Boundary-Layer Meteorology
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10546-021-00604-6

Contrasting long-term temperature trends reveal minor changes in projected potential evapotranspiration in the US Midwest
Basso et al 2021 Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21763-7

Reducing climate impacts of beef production: A synthesis of life cycle assessments across management systems and global regions
Cusack et al 2021 Global Change Biology
Open Access DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15509

Responses of maize with different growth periods to heat stress around flowering and early grain filling
Dong et al 2021 Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108378

Perceptions and adaptation behavior of farmers to climate change in the upper Brahmaputra Valley, India
Baruah et al 2021 Environment, Development and Sustainability,
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-021-01309-z

Economics & finance of climate change & mitigation

Economic and environmental impacts of a proposed ‘Carbon adder’ on New York’s energy market
Ak?n-Olçum et al 2021 Climate Policy
DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2021.1891018

Tradable instruments to fight climate change: A disappointing outcome
Quirion 2021 WIREs Climate Change
DOI: 10.1002/wcc.705

Early European experience with tradable green certificates neglected by EU ETS architects
Verbruggen & Laes 2021 Environmental Science & Policy
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.02.013

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Wind power projects in Brazil: challenges and opportunities increasing co-benefits and implications for climate and energy policies
Góes et al 2021 Environment, Development and Sustainability,
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-021-01300-8

The heterogeneous impact of environmental regulations on low-carbon economic transformation in China: Empirical research based on the mediation effect model
Wang & Huang 2020 Greenhouse Gases
DOI: 10.1002/ghg.2033

Incorporating blue carbon sequestration benefits into sub-national climate policies

Climate change impacts on human health

An advanced empirical model for quantifying the impact of heat and climate change on human physical work capacity
Foster et al 2021 International Journal of Biometeorology
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00484-021-02105-0

A review of mental health and wellbeing under climate change in small island developing states (SIDS)
Kelman et al 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abe57d

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Why uncertainty in community livelihood adaptation is important for adaptive delta management: A case study in polders of Southwest Bangladesh
Kulsum et al 2021 Environmental Science & Policy
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.01.004

Gender equality in climate policy and practice hindered by assumptions
Lau et al 2021 Nature Climate Change
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-00999-7

A methodological framework for determining an optimal coastal protection strategy against storm surges and sea level rise
Miura et al 2021 Natural Hazards
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04661-5

Climate change impacts on human culture

Adapting to changing labor productivity as a result of intensified heat stress in a changing climate

Scenarios of human responses to unprecedented social-environmental extreme events
Rusca et al 2021 Earth’s Future
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001911

Other

Constraining 20th-century sealevel rise in the South Atlantic Ocean
Frederikse et al 2021 Journal of Geophysical Research
DOI: 10.1029/2020jc016970

The atmospheric travel distance of persistent organic pollutants-revisit and application in climate change impact on long-rang transport potential
Li et al 2021 Atmospheric Research
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105558

Implications of future atmospheric composition in decision-making for sustainable aviation
Dedoussi 2021 Environmental Research Letters
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abe74d

Recent advances in polar low research: current knowledge, challenges and future perspectives
Moreno-Ibáñez et al 2020 JOURNAL OF MECHANICS OF CONTINUA AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/16000870.2021.1890412

Optimal building retrofit pathways considering stock dynamics and climate change impacts
Streicher et al 2021 Energy Policy
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112220

A global analysis of subsidence, relative sea-level change and coastal flood exposure
Nicholls et al 2021
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-00993-z

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Tradable instruments to fight climate change: A disappointing outcome
Quirion 2021 WIREs Climate Change
DOI: 10.1002/wcc.705

The Australian bushfire disaster: How to avoid repeating this catastrophe for biodiversity
Celermajer et al 2021 WIREs Climate Change
DOI: 10.1002/wcc.704

 


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  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you’re interested in an article title and it is not listed here as “open access,” be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to “preprint” versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. As it is the journal’s decision to do so, we respect that and include such items in New Research. These are flagged as “preprint.”

The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

Articles are presented with a title link via the original publisher URL so as to preserve provenance information, and when (usually) available, a more permanent DOI link. When a publicly accessible PDF version of an article is found, a direct link is provided.

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Journals covered

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